OPINION | The analyst and researcher, Jamie Mighti who is focused on the fields of Law, Business and Politics. He shares his inputs about EFF leader, Julius Malema’s political journey.
The Julius Malema presidency is not a scenario that serious analysts can ignore. There is going to be a world after the Ramaphosa presidency, whether it ends in 2024 or in 2029 or earlier due to a recall, the last days of the African National Congress (ANC) presidency have been precarious in recent times.
The elephant in the room is who will be in prime position to become president, this article considers if that man is Julius Malema.
Of the three largest parties the EFF is the only party that is still growing. The EFF had a voter growth rate of 54.5% between the 2016 and 2019 elections. This is the real number that people ought to be focusing on, this ultimately will determine the size of the party.
The Patriotic Alliance has won wards in several municipalities, but they are not a national player. What determines the national significance of a party are the absolute numbers of voters that the party possesses.
As things stand even with a reduced growth rate the EFF stands to cross the 2 million voters mark easily in the 2021 local government elections. Success begets momentum and the party is likely to benefit from these additional voters participating in party activities as they head to the 2024 national elections.
Julius Malema as the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has progressed in his leadership acumen. In the first instance he tackled the objections that were raised in respect to his education.
There used to be a time when the Braai joke of the day used to be how Julius Malema performed in woodwork, now that he is a masters student enrolled at Wits University, the mockery of his intellectual acumen has turned into a whisper.
The tables have turned so much that the EFF is the party with a contingent of academically trained leaders while the Democratic Party (the party of meritocracy) is the party stacked with matric certificate holders.
A whole article could be written about the double standard in discussing education, qualifications and certified credentials but that’s not the topic for the day. It is sufficient to note that Julius Malema has strengthened his academic credentials.
There has also been a maturation in the quality of management in the organisation that he leads. In the ANC youth league days, chaos was a feature of the administration of affairs.
However, looking at the EFF now there is clearly an understanding of management processes, not only does the EFF demonstrate efficiency in running events, but they have also managed their buildings in a professional way, they have managed their communications professionally and shown all the attributes of a modern political party.
The EFF pays its staff and does so on time which is more than some political parties can claim in this day and age.
Most significantly the EFF has been able to maintain a clear line of command in the organisation. A divided house cannot stand, it is a well observed phenomena in politics, sports and business, the ability to maintain a clear and coordinated chain of command is critical to organisational longevity. No objective eye can ignore that the EFF has deftly avoided the perils of newly formed political parties with scientific precision.
In addition to maintaining a clear line of command the EFF has been able to platform and profile a wide range of new young leaders. There are young people who have become national household names as a result of the EFF opening doors for them. Young people such as Sinawo Tambo, Vuyani Pambo, Naledi Chirwa, Sixo Gcilishe.
Many have become so used to Mbuyiseni Ndlozi that they forget that he was not a household name in 2012, while Adv Dali Mpofu,Floyd Shivambu and Julius Malema were national brands, Mbuyiseni was not. The EFF has for a period of time given platform to young people in ways that many other political parties have not. They have in a sense opened up the industry.
Organisational machinery is important to consider because it can be the limiting factor in the success of highly gifted politicians. A strong message, with a strong orator can still fail if there is no infrastructure. The EFF has crafted a message that resonates with the youth of South Africa.
Not only have they found a message, but they have also found a narrative and they have crafted an iconic African brand. They have a gifted orator in Julius Malema to deliver that message in multiple languages. Julius Malema has an understanding of the power of stagecraft, drama and poignancy. He understands not only how to deliver a message, but also how to deliver a performance.
The recent naming ceremony at the manifesto launch was one such example. The EFF named their new headquarters after the struggle icon Winnie Madikizela Mandela in a way that very few objective voices could critique.
The question may be – will those young people show up to vote? In the first instance it does seem like they are actually showing up, the 1.88 million voters that showed up to support the EFF did not fall from the sky. Secondly the median age of the country is 27, not 19.
The voter registration numbers of the 18- 20 age group are low but why is the assumption that these are the voters the EFF is attracting. The 25- 34 age group knows full well the problem of unemployment too, they face 52.3% unemployment as a group, they have lived long enough under the leadership of the ANC government to have seen lack of delivery and multiple election cycles.
This makes them less inclined to choose the incumbent governing party. They are the voter base who are most likely to be active online. Lastly, no party can truly be sustainable if it relies on the votes of the older voters. Relying on older voters for support is a survival strategy but it is an abdication of the contest for the future. This article is about the coming two national elections, eventually those unregistered young people register.
Eventually those radical students become professionals who have the means to support a party, eventually artists lose their reservations to openly support a party. Capturing the youth and the young at heart is not a trivial accomplishment. It is a factor in the enthusiasm of your volunteers. Unlike Bernie Sanders, Julius has enough time on his clock to benefit from the dividend of youth support.
Having read this far, a question might fairly be posed, what about the scandals? What about On-point engineering, what about VBS mutual bank. There has been extensive coverage by publications such as the Daily Maverick about Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu which paint them as unethical, corrupt and money hungry leaders.
In 2019 the NPA decided to charge On Point Engineering and its three directors with tender fraud. The Prosecuting Authority alleged that Lesiba Gwangwa, Kagiso Dichabe and Thomas Rasetlhaba made misrepresentations to the Limpopo Transport Department in order to win tenders. Julius Malema’s Ratanang Family trust was linked in a Public Protector report to OnPoint Engineering. Julius Malema was not charged in 2019.
On the 12th of October 2021, 14 people accused of looting nearly R2.3 billion from the VBS Mutual Bank will face more than 100 charges for their alleged roles in the heist in the North Gauteng High Court (Pretoria).
Among those facing trial are the Limpopo ANC leader Danny Msiza, former VBS executives Tshifhiwa Matodzi, Andile Ramavhunga, Phophi Mukhodobwane, as well as Ernest Nesane and Paul Magula, who both came from the Public Investment Corporation; Phalaphala Ramikosi, the SA Police Service’s former chief financial officer (CFO); and Sipho Malaba, formerly from KPMG.
Philip Truter was one of those originally charged, the chief financial officer of VBS Mutual Bank has since pleaded guilty to charges of racketeering, fraud, corruption, and money laundering. He has since been sentenced to 10 years.
Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu have not been charged with any criminal act associated with VSB mutual bank. Effectively they are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
More directly the question of politicians and their connection to money is not career limiting in South Africa. There are ministers and deputy ministers in the Ramaphosa administration with questions to answer about financial benefits received. There are many politicians with scandals and skeletons in their closets. The nature of South African politics in the present day is that there is no politician who is squeaky clean even those currently celebrated.
This article does not seek to conduct a trial by media, nor does it seek to traverse the ethics of some of the reporting on funds allegedly benefited. This article is about the likelihood of a Malema presidency. The electoral question is therefore as follows, has the reporting on the VBS Scandal adversely affected Julius Malema?
The answer is that it has hurt his brand with voters who were least likely to vote for him, it has not hurt his brand with voters who were mostly likely to vote for him. In part because they are not choosing from a scandal free list, but from a list of politicians with chequered histories. The question is primarily who best represents their issues.
In fact, the way that the EFF became the focus of the reporting in some publications gave credence to perceptions that the reporting was politically motivated. While R2.3 billion is alleged to have been looted a disproportionate amount of reporting has been about a R16 million amount which is linked indirectly to the EFF.
As a percentage this amount represents 0.696%, less than 1% of the amount of money alleged to have been looted. However more than 50% of all articles written have been about Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu and their connection to VBS mutual bank, they have even been branded the VBS looters. It is a label that seems malicious considering that the VBS looters in the main, were those who are currently charged with the crime.
Julius Malema has removed the potency of some of the allegations by responding directly to the allegations about him inviting all journalists to come and conduct a live media trial.
If ever he is formally charged Julius Malema will have the pathway to presidency narrowed significantly. However, if the EFF continues on their present trajectory, Julius Malema may be the president of South Africa in the next 12 years.
BY THE GIRAFFE
